49ers Fantasy Outlooks: Christian McCaffrey, Ricky Pearsall, and More
“There are many things a man can do with his time… This is better than those things”
We are firmly in fantasy draft week, and whether you already drafted a 49ers to your team and need validation, or if you’re strongly considering targeting one during your draft, we got you.
Tensions and injuries are mounting. So is that giddy, childlike optimism about what the coming season could bring. One major form of that excitement comes by way of fantasy football and the chance to draft some of our favorite team’s big-name players. See my previous piece on the topic for more in-depth statistical analysis of each big-name 49er’s 2024 outlook here:
Since that write-up, a month and a half of news has passed, some average draft positions (ADP) have shifted, and new variables must now be weighed.
Brock Purdy: Still a Value
Receiver injuries notwithstanding, Purdy currently enters drafts as QB9 on the high end and QB12 on the low end of cross-platform ADP (FantasyPros), averaging pick 106 across the three major redraft platforms. That’s 32 picks behind Bo Nix, 36 behind Baker Mayfield, and 51 behind Patrick Mahomes. Despite having similar median outcomes to all three.
In superflex, he goes in the late second round as QB12. Last season, this offense took fewer than 60 snaps with all starters healthy. The absence of Christian McCaffrey forced them to battle suffocating zone coverage all year. Everything went wrong, and Brock still finished as QB12. You’re buying him at his floor, and capturing the very real upside that he is this year’s Baker Mayfield. With a healthier offense once Aiyuk and Jennings return, and the easiest schedule in the league, Purdy is one of my favorite late-round QB targets. He should be one of yours too.
Christian McCaffrey: No Longer a Dip, But Keep Buying
To reiterate from the last piece, since 2021 CMC has posted full PPR point totals of:
127.5 (2021)
356.4 (2022)
391.3 (2023)
47.8 (2024)
There’s no two ways about it: drafting him inside a loaded top 10 is risky. I cannot recommend taking him over the “big six” (Chase, Bijan, Gibbs, Saquon, Jefferson, Lamb). That’s getting too cute. But in the next tier? Puka comes with his own injury history plus Stafford’s high mileage body. Nabers has dealt with a lingering foot injury for years. Nico was often injured last season. Post-knee-surgery Amon-Ra faces the stiffest target competition of his career. None of these are risk-free ADP contemporaries.
What none of them have, however, is the nuclear, league-winning upside Christian offers. His bull case belongs in the Chase/Gibbs conversation. A 25+ point-per-game season outcome is still alive and well, especially given the 49ers’ offensive situation. This is simply a matter of huge risk for huge reward.
The Robinson Jr. trade may create added bearishness. Good, More CMC for us. Ride with me: draft him 7th overall or later, pair him with Drake London (my favorite round-two WR), AJB, or, if you’re lucky, one of the big names who occasionally slide like BTJ, Puka, or Nabers. That’s how you bring titles home.
We also have a very clear handcuff with upside in Brian Robinson Jr., confirmed by Kyle as the RB2 for 2025. If you want insurance, he’s the guy.
George Kittle: Career Season Loading?
For more in-depth statistical discussion, see my previous write-up. But at his 3–4 turn ADP, Kittle is an absolute smash. No doubt about it. Smash.
The gap between him, Bowers, and Trey, especially in standard or half-PPR, is nearly negligible. In full PPR those guys deserve the edge, but he’s right there. Kittle just finished 2024 as the TE1 in points per game. The receiving corps is largely on ice, CMC is back to put fear into defenses via play-action, and Kittle remains one of the most heavily used red-zone targets in football.
It’s entirely possible we see the best statistical season of his career. I cannot wait.
Jauan Jennings: Sell, Sell, Sell
Jennings’ ADP has fluctuated heavily this offseason, both in best ball and redraft. He peaked in the mid-50s but has since fallen to the late 70s/early 80s, and nearly 100 in redraft. While the dip may look appealing, the slide is warranted.
Jennings hasn’t practiced in weeks due to his calf injury, and the Niners beat seems to believe we’re witnessing a full-blown Pearsall breakout. Even if he’s back for a less than 100% for Week 1, a Week 6 Aiyuk return looms. You’re risking 7th–9th round capital on what amounts to a short-term flex play. The pick comes while premium upside assets like Tyler Warren, Emeka Egbuka, Matthew Golden, Ricky Pearsall, and Jakobi Meyers are still available too.
I’m passing on Jennings this year. Unless Aiyuk suffers a major setback, I don’t see how he becomes a season-long usable asset that swings outcomes this year.
Ricky Pearsall: Dump the Clip (Sorry, Too Soon)
Oh man, do I love me some Round 8 Ricky. Take him earlier if needed. Yes, this is more of a projection pick than Meyers, Jeudy, or even Jennings, but these are exactly the types of moves that win fantasy championships.
The key here is balancing risk. If you’re already rookie-heavy through seven rounds, many will be this year, you may want to lean toward a steady veteran like Meyers or Jeudy. But ambiguity in the 49ers WR room creates value. The kind of value where you can land a potential WR1 on a top-10 offense, with a coach and QB who have proven to be fantasy kingmakers. Add in what projects to be a below-average defense, and you have a perfect breakout scenario.
In their preseason drive together, Ricky drew three targets for 42 yards, showing timing and synchronicity with Brock on multiple in-breaking routes, vital to the Niners’ offense. I’m way overweight in both redraft and best ball.
Worst-case scenario: he’s a matchup-based WR3. Best case? A WR2 with top-12 spike weeks. Take Ricky at cost. Enjoy the breakout.
Brandon Aiyuk: The Prodigal Son Returns
Aiyuk’s recovery was murky enough that he didn’t even make my first write-up. Now we have clarity, and cause for optimism.
He was spotted warming up in Week 2 of preseason, cutting on the knee, running routes, and showing burst. That prompted popular fantasy doc Jeff Mueller to say this:
If Mueller is correct and we get close to a full-route-share Aiyuk by Week 5, this becomes one of the best upside plays in fantasy. He’s often available in Round 11 or later in best ball (he’s my most rostered WR across 45 drafts), and Round 10+ in redraft. The bonus with redraft: you can stash him in an IR slot while waiting.
The last time Aiyuk played a full season, he was a top-15 WR. Even post-holdout last year, when he didn’t look like himself, he was pacing for 1,000+ yards. He returns to perhaps the most open WR room of his career, and for that you’re paying WR5/6 prices.
Yes, it’s risky. Injuries find you in fantasy regardless, it does not feel great seeking them out. But at this price, with his Week 12–17 upside? I’m in. Championships are rarely won by pessimists.