49ers vs. ADP: How to Approach the 2025 Draft
“Optimism is the faith that leads to achievement.”
Heading into the 2025 fantasy football season, optimism abounds for San Francisco 49ers offensive assets. That optimism could well lead to achievement for their drafters. The 49ers are projected to enter 2025 with the 9th-ranked offense and 26th-ranked defense, while facing the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL. Conditions are ripe for fantasy output. Despite this, their average draft positions (ADPs) remain affordable. Brock Purdy (101), Christian McCaffrey (10), George Kittle (44), Jauan Jennings (61), and Ricky Pearsall (80) all present varying degrees of value that fantasy managers should be targeting. Here’s where things stand:
Brock Purdy: The Bargain Shopper’s Dream
Despite benefiting from the 8th-easiest projected strength of schedule in 2025, and coming off QB8 and QB12 finishes in points per game (PPG) his first two full seasons, Purdy is currently priced at his floor. His average draft position (ADP) ranges from 99 to 103 across major platforms, making him the QB11–12. In FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR), which aggregates over 250 expert rankings weekly, he currently sits at QB10.
He’s a prize for price sensitive drafters, offering a median case similar to Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, or Bo Nix, players typically going 20–40 spots earlier. In Superflex formats, where ECR is only available for best ball at this time of year, Purdy holds an average ADP of 12.3.
While he may be best left for redraft leagues, in best ball—where ceiling is king—it’s advisable to target higher-upside options in the same range, targets like Dak Prescott, Drake Maye, or even Jordan Love. At the minimum, if you're taking two QBs near the 1st–2nd round, pair him with a high-ceiling counterpart to add balance to your QB room.
Christian McCaffrey: Buy The Dip
Perhaps the most controversial name in fantasy football, McCaffrey remains the quintessential feast-or-famine asset. Drafted top-3 in every season since 2021, his full-PPR point totals have been:
127.5 (2021)
356.4 (2022)
391.3 (2023)
47.8 (2024)
With a “clean bill of health”, for whatever that’s worth, coming from the 49ers’ notoriously murky injury reporting. The market has responded with a current ADP of 8–11, making him the consensus RB4. That’s a sharp contrast to ECR, where he’s ranked 18th.
I don’t begrudge managers who opt for lower risk in the first round, but we don’t play fantasy to finish fourth. We play to win titles and collect prize money. The risk profile is more manageable when you account for the clear handcuff: Isaac Guerendo (ADP 140–147). In four starts last year, he finished as RB10, RB2, RB25, and RB11—averaging 16.7 touches and 101 yards per game. That’s league-winning upside you can get in Round 11, irrespective of rostering Christian or not.
CMC almost certainly won’t fall out of the first round in any competitive league—and he shouldn’t. Buy the dip and pair him with another monster at the 1–2 turn. If you're not first, you're last. That being said, it would be prudent to keep an eye on injury reports throughout training camp.
George Kittle: Criminally Undervalued
It’s only fitting that the founder of Tight End University and National Tight Ends Day heads into 2025 looking to build on a 2024 season as the TE1 in PPG. A season in which he led all NFL pass-catchers in yards per target and finished tied for 13th in receiving touchdowns (8).
2025 Fantasy drafters have even more cause for bullishness: According to Fantasy-Points, in play action Kittle posted over 6 yards per route run and drew a 30% target share. With Christian McCaffrey seemingly recovered, and Brandon Aiyuk out until mid or late October, Kittle is poised for elite usage. It seems likely he can replicate or even expand upon his insane 30.6% target share from Purdy inside the 10 yard line last season. At his current ADP of 41 in redraft, 45 on Underdog, he sits firmly as the TE3. While his premium TE contemporaries are going at ADPs of 19 and 25. Smash the value and go chase that championship.
Jauan Jennings & Ricky Pearsall: The S&P 500 vs Crypto
Jauan Jennings enters 2025 following the first season in which a 7th-round receiver earned a top-36 fantasy finish. He posted standout metrics, 17th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade, and 14th in yards per route run in 2024. While dominating virtually every contested or clutch catch metric there is. With Deebo Samuel gone and Aiyuk likely opening on the PUP list, Jennings now steps back into the lucrative X role to begin 2025.
That excitement is reflected in an ADP of 63–75 across major platforms, including 61 on Underdog. Good for WR33 in both redraft and best ball. Ricky Pearsall, understandably only got going late in the season, but posted WR7 and WR14 finishes in the final two fantasy season weeks. He’s currently priced 10–12 spots behind Jennings.
Choosing between them comes down to roster construction and draft capital strategy. Think of Jennings as the S&P 500: safe, steady, and predictable. You’ll likely get a 5–10% return and feel good about your sound, responsible investing. Pearsall, though? He’s crypto. He could 5x your value, or just as easily go to 0. Upside that is apparent here in his year 1 highlight reel: https://x.com/Ihartitz/status/1943416560334319797
This is where roster construction is key. If you're targeting less predictable assets like rookies Tet McMillan and Travis Hunter, or young RBs like Omarion Hampton and Quinshon Judkins, Jennings might be the better play with his high floor and even high upside for at least the first 6–8 weeks, while the rookies settle into their roles.
That said, with Aiyuk returning, and three athletic youngsters behind him, Jennings could lose steam late in the season. Pearsall, on the other hand, projects to take over pre-snap motion duties, sweeps, screens, and short-yardage designs that Deebo left behind. When given that role, he flashed high-end WR2, even mid-WR1 upside. As seen in the Lions game, his highest usage of last season: https://x.com/jerrythornton1/status/1874122573245796399
If you have the roster depth to weather early volatility, Pearsall type picks are how you win leagues. Jennings feels safe—especially in PPR—but I prefer the big swing on Pearsall at their current ADPs.