The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. In this instance the heuristic cuts both ways. Brady has a track record of convincing organizations to take on volatile assets, and those bets have historically paid off. Is bringing Brandon Aiyuk to Las Vegas his next reclamation project?
Brady is no stranger to buying low on controversial, high upside receivers. In the cases of Josh Gordon and Antonio Brown, he took on far more than asinine social media posts. Over the course of 11 games in 2018 Gordon posted a line of 40/720/3 before stepping away from the team as part of his continuing struggle with substance abuse issues. The same issues that had plagued him for years before the trade, leading to multiple suspensions during his Browns tenure. The Patriots would go on to win the Super Bowl that season, and Gordon, living with Brady at the time, would get a ring for his efforts.
Brown’s transgressions were far more wide ranging. Culminating in his release from the Patriots in 2019 and later receiving an eight game suspension to start 2020 as a result of the sexual assault allegations and subsequent intimidation of his accuser via text messages. What did Brady do? Recruited him to the 2020 Buccaneers. Again, invited the man to live in his house, around his family to be clear. The results? Another ring. Worth noting, in 2018 and 2020 they eliminated Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Those postseasons now weigh heavily in legacy discussions for both men. Brady has been consistently rewarded for making these exact types of high-risk, high-reward decisions.
In comes Aiyuk. His behavior has ranged from speeding on video, mocking the 49ers for signing him, verbally attacking Jayden Daniels mother, and perhaps worst of all, his commentary on head coach Kyle Shanahan post car accident.
To be clear, Aiyuk is not Antonio Brown or Josh Gordon. Drug suspensions and sexual assault allegations are in a different moral universe than immature, antagonistic social media posts. The point is that Brady has a history of catching these falling, misbehaving knives. Granted Aiyuk isn’t the talent of either Gordon or Brown, but the last full season we saw from him he did achieve second team all pro status on his way to a line of 75/1342/7. While his behavior has been off color, and he might be far less desirable for most teams as a result, what might Brady, and by extension the Raiders think?
The fit is clearly there with newly minted head coach Klint Kubiak at the helm. The scheme is ideal as the Kubiaks and Shanahans have a 30 year track record of developing together. The Raiders are currently planning to roll out Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor, and Jack Bech at wide receiver. Aiyuk is by far the best talent they could possibly add ahead of 2026, and he’s literally free come September. Should he regain even 85% of his 2023 form, he’d be a foundational piece of the new look LV squad for years to come.
Brady has already gone toe to toe with the likes of Bill Belichick and Bruce Arians to insist on acquiring risky wideouts while personally taking responsibility for them. Nudging brand new HC Klint Kubiak in his direction should be light work in comparison. His legacy was both built and transformed as a result. The Raiders are my bet for Brandon Aiyuk’s next team, and I think the fit is excellent.