The fantasy market inefficiently pricing uncertainty is one of the biggest edges left for the savvy manager to grab a hold of. There’s no better example of this than buying rookies amid uncertainty about usage and talent. We live in an increasingly algorithmic, data-driven sports world. It’s why first-year prospects are such a fun conversation. The best data scientists in the world can’t tell you exactly how a guy’s game carries over to the next level, whether or not their coach will give them a 70% snap share, or how they react the first time a world-class athlete rings their bell. The preseason officially got underway Thursday night, and two NFC West rookies with plenty of fantasy buzz took the field.
Photo credit: David Brytus, Imagn Images
Jeremiyah Love | 11 carries, 58 yards | 3 receptions, 14 yards |
As we must with all preseason performances, let’s keep it in context: many of the defenders we were watching Thursday night will be working in stripmalls come September. Still, what we want to see is: A) What usage does the team have in mind for the rooks? B) Given the softer defensive context they’re operating in, how do they perform?
Love looked strong on both accounts. 14 opportunities on 24 total snaps, outplaying backfield mate Tyler Allgeier 4:1 in that department. In those opportunities we got the full array of Love’s skill set: a nice outside-zone run where he got the edge against a penetrating lineman, finishing off the 11-yard gain with a signature spin move. He also put a hurdle on tape to complete his longest run of the evening on an inside draw. My biggest fantasy related concern with Love is simply teams stacking the box as much as possible. Beyond that, the talent very much looks as advertised through the third overall pick’s first 14 touches. He’s my RB13 and I’m very comfortable taking him at the 2/3 turn.
Photo credit: Carlos Avila Gonzalez, S.F. Chronicle
De’Zhaun Stribling | 8 targets, 7 catches, 62 yards |
The controversial second-round pick has been making noise all camp long. We saw why Thursday night. Stribling made the most of his 22 snaps against Tennessee’s starting defense. His strong hands and big frame were on display as he moved all around the formation. He took a sweep out of the backfield, plucked a missile out of the air on a contested first-down grab, and had the highlight of the night with his big chunk play down the sideline. It’s highly encouraging to see Shanahan trust him enough to give him some of the more complex scheme work. It’s even better to see Stribs deliver on his prospect profile straight away. The runway could not be more clear for him to earn reps as the year develops. The base he already has as an elite run-blocking, sure-handed speedster is enough for him to get plenty of Week 1 snaps. He’s my pick to be their second-leading fantasy scorer at the position. I’m drafting Stribling everywhere I can as my bench-stash WR5. You should be too.
Preseason performances should always be taken with a grain of salt, but very early returns on both Stribling and Love gave prospective managers something to get excited about as we sit on the dawn of redraft season. The market has been pricing in question marks all summer; their prices are ripe for the picking. I’m feeling bullish moving forward.