Every year, before Week 1, thousands of players across the NFL are unceremoniously cut. It’s a sad day for most players, but for 1,696 of them, they will have officially made a 53-man roster. The San Francisco 49ers will have to make careful and crucial decisions on who they’ll take into battle. Today, ahead of the final preseason game, my goal is to predict which 53 players will comprise the 80th iteration of those 49ers.
Quarterback (3): Brock Purdy, Mac Jones, Kurtis Rourke
Cuts: Adrian Martinez
The annual question at quarterback: do you keep two or three? Last year, the 49ers didn’t have a worthy QB3, so the choice was obvious. This year, I think that the 49ers will be unable to get Kurtis Rourke through waivers. So many teams run a variation of the Shanahan system and could use a talented young QB like Rourke. His performance against the Titans could be the reason he makes this roster.
Running Back (4): Christian McCaffrey, Jordan James, Kaelon Black, Kyle Juszczyk
Cuts: Khalil Herbert, Sincere McCormick, Isaac Guerendo (PUP), Zamir White* (traded)
After going heavy at QB, I’m going uncharacteristically light at running back. Normally, teams prefer to carry four (or sometimes more) true running backs, but I’ve opted for only three. I think Guerendo likely stays on the PUP list for the foreseeable future, sort of a soft cut. But none of the other three veterans (Herbert, McCormick, and White already moved) have really proven to be 53-worthy this offseason. I think the 49ers will carry three running backs, but elevate a fourth from the practice squad as necessary. The precedent is there; they did something similar with Russell Gage last year at wide receiver.
Wide Receiver (6): Mike Evans, De’Zhaun Stribling, Deebo Samuel, Demarcus Robinson, Jordan Watkins, Jacob Cowing
Cuts: Christian Kirk (IR), Malik Turner, Kha’Darel Hodge, Will Pauling, Wesley Grimes
Receiver is one of the most difficult position battles on the entire roster. The top 4 feel very set in stone, but the rest of the roster is extremely close. I decided to keep both Watkins and Cowing. One of them will likely be this team’s punt returner, and both can be depth receivers: Watkins on the outside, Cowing in the slot. Shanahan himself noted that Christian Kirk could be an IR-return candidate, so I have him off the roster for now. This room gets much trickier to sort out if he’s healthy. As I mentioned with the running backs, there may be practice squad elevations in play for Malik Turner and KhaDarel Hodge, phenomenal special teamers who have flashed on offense.
Tight End (3): George Kittle, Jake Tonges, Luke Farrell
Cuts: Brayden Willis, Hayden Rucci, Khalil Dinkins
At tight end, the primary question is George Kittle’s availability. Can Kittle play Week 1? While I can’t answer that just yet, I do believe he will be healthy enough to avoid the PUP list. If he doesn’t make the trip to Australia, I think he could play as soon as Week 2, which means he’s making the active roster. Tonges and Farrell are shoo-ins behind him, but we may see a practice squad elevation for Brayden Willis for Week 1.
Offensive Line (9): Trent Williams, Carver Willis, Jake Brendel, Dominick Puni, Colton McKivitz, Connor Colby, Brett Toth, Austen Pleasants, Robert Jones
Cuts: Vederian Lowe (IR), Enrique Cruz, Brandon Parker, Drake Nugent, Nick Zakelj, Doug Kramer Jr, Isaac Alarcon
With the injuries already affecting this position, more depth is better. Puni, Pleasants, and Toth are all banged up. Robert Jones I think will ultimately lose the battle with Connor Colby, but makes this team anyways, because Pleasants will be needed as the swing tackle. Vederian Lowe is an IR return candidate according to Kyle Shanahan. So Pleasants is the swing tackle, while Jones and Colby can both play guard, and Toth can be your center. This feels like the most flexible offensive line group the 49ers can assemble from their current room. Unfortunately, it doesn’t feature Enrique Cruz, who simply needs more development on the practice squad before he can be a useful NFL player.
Defensive Line (10): Nick Bosa, Osa Odighizuwa, Sam Okuayinonu, Romello Height, Alfred Collins, CJ West, Gracen Halton, Keion White, Ogbo Okoronkwo, James Thompson Jr
Cuts: Mykel Williams (PUP), Sebastian Valdez, Bryson Eason, Quinton Bell, Victor Dimukeje, Evan Anderson, Viliami Fehoko
With Mykel Williams likely remaining on the PUP list to start the season, the 49ers will need to go heavy to replace his versatility on the defensive line. Ogbo Okoronkwo is the beneficiary; after a nice preseason, he earns the 5th edge spot for now. Sebastian Valdez is a lovely gap-shooter, but that skillset overlaps with Odighizuwa’s and Halton’s. James Thompson Jr is the strongest defensive tackle on the roster, and shows high potential as a run defender while already flashing as a pass rusher. I just do not believe you can leave him off this roster, as he’s too important to this team already and may play quite a bit as soon as Week 1.
Linebacker (5): Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, Garrett Wallow, Jaden Dugger, Nick Martin
Cuts: Tatum Bethune, Luke Gifford (IR), Deion Jones, Larry Worth III, Jalen Graham
Linebacker is one of the most clear-cut position groups on the team, if you ask me. Warner and Greenlaw are locks. Martin and Dugger are recent draft picks who I don’t think the Niners are ready to give up on yet. And Garrett Wallow has been the most impressive backup LB this year. Unfortunately, this leaves Tatum Bethune on the outside looking in. Bethune is a good NFL player and probably a trade candidate if the 49ers are committed to keeping Dugger and Martin. Luke Gifford’s struggled with a hamstring injury all camp, and I have him put on IR here. The final three linebackers could each make an appearance on the practice squad.
Cornerback (6): Deommodore Lenoir, Renardo Green, Upton Stout, Jack Jones, Nate Hobbs, Ephesians Prysock
Cuts: Darrell Luter Jr, Eli Apple, Jakob Robinson
There are four roster locks at corner for the 49ers: Lenoir, Green, Stout, and the draft pick Prysock. The question comes down to the final spots: will they keep five corners, or six? In either case, I think Jack Jones is pretty close to a lock. His start to training camp was electric, and his playmaking ability should help this team grab more than six interceptions this season. In this version of the roster, the final spot on the 53 goes to Nate Hobbs, a corner who has struggled to stay healthy in camp. However, Hobbs is owed three million dollars in guaranteed money. Hobbs’ inside-out versatility and high guarantees should earn him the spot on the 53.
Safety (4): Ji’Ayir Brown, Marques Sigle, Malik Mustapha, Siran Neal
Cuts: Ashtyn Davis, Patrick McMorris, Jalen Stroman
The options are slim at safety. Brown, Sigle, and Mustapha will all certainly make the team if healthy, just because there’s really nobody else to lean on. Mustapha’s hamstring injury could open up a spot for a free agent safety, but for now I’m putting him on the roster. I gave the final spot to Siran Neal over Ashtyn Davis because of Neal’s positional versatility and superior special teams play. Jalen Stroman should make the practice squad after a few nice plays in the preseason, but I think the 53 is just a bit too far out of reach.
Specialists (3): Eddy Piñeiro, Corliss Waitman, Jon Weeks
Cuts: None
No surprises here with the special teams unit.
The 53-man roster will always bring surprises, but this is a strong group that I think will compete for the playoffs with even a little bit of injury luck. I included some realistic surprises who I think could miss the cut, like Robert Jones, Tatum Bethune, Sebastian Valdez, Luke Gifford, and perhaps none more surprising than Christian Kirk.
Nice breakdown.
My most “iffy” player is Jordan Watkins. I can see a scenario where the 49ers put Christian Kirk on the initial 53, then short term IR him. If Watkins clears waivers, then he can be elevated for weeks 1-4.
And I’d love to figure out a way to keep Bryson Eason!