The 5 Best Bets for 49ers v. Texans
Defense Takes Center Stage
Alright folks, after three weeks of 5 picks per week we are sitting at 8-6-1. George Kittle’s dud against the Falcons hurt the season record, but we’ll look to rebound in Week 8. This one profiles as a slog, the Texans sport the 4th overall defense in yards allowed, the 49ers 13th. We’re going to bet against big plays here, let’s get into it.
49ers @ Falcons U 42.5 -110 (DraftKings SportsBook)
Our first total bet of the season, and we are gonna take the under in Houston. This Texans offense has had two competent games in 2025, one against the lowly Titans, the other against the ghost of the Ravens. They amassed 70 combined points in those outings, and averaged 14.25 in their other 4. They face SF without their 2 top pass catchers in Nico Collins and Christian Kirk.
On the other side, the 49ers haven’t been lighting the scoreboard up the last two weeks either. Averaging 14.5 over their last two games. It feels like Kyle Shanahan will be happy to feed Christian McCaffrey yet again, get the ball out of Mac Jones’ hands quickly, and salt away an ugly win. It is hard to say what the Texans will do, as they have been offensively terrible for the majority of 2025. That’s the point, we’re taking the under.
Woody Marks 3+ receptions -116 (DraftKings SportsBook)
The 49ers have been susceptible to running back catches this season. +3 receptions would have hit in 5/7 games. Marks is the locked in third down back, in addition to splitting early down work with Nick Chubb. Should they get behind, Marks’ route participation bodes well for hitting this over, but I like it either way. With no Collins or Kirk, CJ Stroud finds himself low on options to throw to as it is. There are multiple paths to success with this one, and those tend to be the best bets to take.
Woody Marks o16.5 receiving yards -107 (DraftKings SportsBook)
I am a sucker for correlated bets, it cuts the number of correct assessments one has to make in half. In this case, Marks is averaging 19.3 receiving yards per game through their first six. If we filter his three touch game Week 1, and their Week 5 Ravens blowout, that figure rises to 29 per game. Everything said above about his receptions applies here too. I do not see a world where he catches 3 or 4 balls and does not hit this over.
CJ Stroud 15+ rushing yards -139 (DraftKings SportsBook)
Welp, that’s not a sentence I expected to type this season: the CJ Stroud rushing over! It has been a sneaky good play this year. He’s cleared 15 yards in 5/6 games, the one he did not was an 11 yard game. Stroud has shown an increased willingness to tuck it and run, a willingness that goes hand in hand with his terrible O-line and underperforming pass catching weapons. Those conditions still hold for this game. I expect to see three or four rushes from the typically statuesque QB.
Christian McCaffrey 50+ receiving yards -101 (DraftKings SportsBook)
Call it lazy, call it repetitive, call it whatever you want. I said last week we are gonna ride this wagon till the wheels fall off. Currently averaging 73.7 receiving yards per game, this figure would have hit the over in every single matchup in 2025. With Kittle’s return, the run game took a big step forward against the Falcons. That presents a degree of risk to CMC receiving usage. However, the Texans allow the 10th fewest rushing yards per game, 4th fewest passing. Receiving windows downfield will be at a premium. Rushing behind an inconsistent O line will be no picnic either. It feels like dumpoffs will once again be alive and well for this one.
Good luck everyone! This should be a dog fight.