The 5 Best Bets For Falcons @ 49ers
It’s The George Kittle Show
Another week, another five props to add some excitement to your football life. There are a lot of moving pieces for this Sunday night showdown as the 49ers adjust to playing defense without Fred Warner. Luckily the return of franchise cornerstone George Kittle is upon us. We will plan out bets accordingly:
Drake London over 80 yards +110 (DraftKings SportsBook)
The 49ers pass defense has not been bad this season, but they have had an issue dealing with elite receivers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba went for 124, and Marvin Harrison Jr. for 44, but dropped 100+ yards of wide open passes. Both Puka Nauca and Davante Adams broke 80 yards as well.
Drake London has played three times in 2025 without Darnell Mooney, and amassed an absurd per game average of 16.3 targets, 9.3 receptions, 133.3 yards, and 1.0 touchdowns. Mooney enters Sunday with a questionable tag after being limited Thursday, then didn’t practice on Friday. Late week soft tissue injury downgrades are never a good sign.
I love getting plus money here. Just be aware, that plus money is due to the Mooney splits. Three games of London with Mooney, 53 yards per game. Two without, 129. If he does suit up, it seems like it’ll be well under 100%. Give me the hulking WR1 in what profiles as a high scoring affair.
Bijan Robinson over 40 receiving yards -103 (DraftKings SportsBook)
Honestly pretty shocked to be able to get -103 on a figure that is almost 29 yards below his per game average. The depleted 49ers defensive line is not good at much currently, they are proficient in clogging up rushing lanes though. Falcons Tackle Jake Mathews comes into the matchup injured, and they are already down 2-3 offensive linemen for the season. Much like the 49ers have turned to CMC’s receiving work as an extension of the run game, the Falcons have too. He’s crossed this figure in 3/5 games to this point, the only two when he did not were multi-score blowouts. Take the near even money, 40 just feels so manageable.
George Kittle 5+ Receptions -104 (DraftKings SportsBook)
The Falcons are far and away the best team in the NFL at limiting tight end production this season, but that may be more of a reflection of the schedule than their defense. The best tight ends they have faced are Zach Ertz and Cade Otton. In his only action with the 49ers, the first drive of 2025, Kittle tallied 4 catches, 25 yards and a touchdown.
The team has confirmed he has no snap limit, and boy do they need receiving options. Five feels like a nice, modest aim for us as bettors. In four games with Mac Jones, Jake Tonges saw 26 targets, 18 of which came with the Niners chasing points over the last two weeks. Fingers crossed George Kittle can fill the big shoes left void as we turn the page from the Jake Tonges era.
George Kittle over 50 receiving yards -127 (DraftKings SportsBook)
This is of course highly correlated with the receptions total, and I would recommend parlaying the two of them. A -104 x -127 pays out +251. Once again, while I acknowledge this is a big ask, if the founder of National Tight End’s Day can only be 90% of what Jake Tonges was, we should be golden here. Over the last three games, Tonges averaged 52.3 yards per. Shanahan TE usage is alive and well in Santa Clara. Assuming they are being honest about his health situation, this parlay feels like free money.
Christian McCaffrey over 50 receiving yards +101 (DraftKings SportsBook)
Do we dare go for three in a row on this wagon of a prop? Yes, yes we do. We’re getting plus money on a figure that CMC has crossed every contest this year.
This is not the 49er defense fans are used to. They are going to have to pass a ton going forward to stay in games. Compounded by the fact that the Falcons D line and pass rush are excellent, this projects for ample screens and dump offs to the perennial all pro. I think we go 3/3 with this one, and guess what happens if we do? It’ll be right back here next week.