Week 12 Preview: Panthers and 49ers Fight for a Playoff Spot
You may not have guessed before the season that the Carolina Panthers taking on the San Francisco on Monday Night Football would be one of the most crucial games of the season, yet here we are. The 7-4 49ers hold onto a narrow lead as the 7th and final seed in the NFC, while the Panthers are 9th, just one game behind at 6-5. The rest of the NFC, like the Cowboys, Lions, and Seahawks, could all really use a Panthers victory.
Where the 49ers Stand
The San Francisco 49ers put up a season high 41 points last Sunday’s victory at Arizona. As QB Brock Purdy and WR Ricky Pearsall returned to action, the 49ers offense received an immediate boost from the special teams unit as WR Skye Moore returned the game opening kickoff 98 yards to the Arizona one-yard line, setting up a Christian McCaffrey touchdown run on the very next play. McCaffrey had three touchdowns in one of his more productive games this season that also saw his overall usage decrease.
As CMC only had 16 touches on the day, Purdy appeared to quickly shake off the rust as he threw for 200 yards and three touchdowns, two of which found their way to TE George Kittle. But as the offense showcased itself in Purdy’s return, the defense continued to struggle to find any pressure on Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett, allowing him to set an NFL record for completions in a game with 47.
Monday Night Fight
While the 49ers defense has struggled the last several weeks achieving any sort of pass rush, ranking 31st in the league, with the only consolation to take away headed into Monday night is that the Panthers are currently ranked 32nd. Coming off of a Panthers franchise record passing day with 448 yards, QB Bryce Young will need to be slowed down.
The already depleted 49ers defense will be even further handcuffed this week without LB Tatum Bethune, who has played admirably in relief of Fred Warner. The 49ers will need their offense to pick up right where they left off in Arizona in order to help the defense and keep Young, and the Panthers two-headed rushing attack, off of the field. Panthers RB Rico Dowdle has 833 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the season, while fellow running mate Chuba Hubbard has provided another 334 yards and one touchdown.
The Panthers will test the young 49ers defensive front to get their run game kick started in order to open up their passing attack that has been fueled with a growing Bryce Young to Tetairoa McMillan connection. McMillan accounted for 130 yards and two touchdowns in last Sunday’s overtime win against Atlanta.
Injuries
49ers
LB Tatum Bethune (ankle)
K Eddy Pineiro (hamstring)
DE Robert Beal Jr. (concussion)
Panthers
LB Christian Rozeboom (hip/hamstring)
LB Trevin Wallace (shoulder)
DT Tershawn Wharton (knee)
Matchups to Watch
Deommodore Lenoir vs. Tetairoa McMillan
Tet McMillan is beginning to look every bit the part of the first-round talent that he was projected to be entering April’s draft. Through eleven games, he has 54 catches for 748 yards and four touchdowns as Bryce Young is becoming more comfortable looking for his biggest weapon in the passing game.
Deommodore Lenoir has had an up and down season to date with most opponents looking away from him earlier in the season. Despite his two interceptions in recent games, teams are looking his way more as he has given up plays, as well as penalties for defensive holding and pass interference. McMillan’s size gives him a clear advantage in this matchup, so it will be interesting to see how Robert Saleh decides to cover him throughout the game.
Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard vs. 49ers Defensive Line
Dowdle and Hubbard have combined for over 1,100 yards to date this season, so the young 49er defensive line will have their hands full. Alfred Collins and CJ West will need to repeat their performance against Arizona to slow the Panthers rushing attack.
Brock Purdy vs. Panthers Linebackers
Facing the Panthers 32nd-ranked pass rush should give Purdy the time to work in the pocket and fully open up the 49ers passing game. I expect to see a lot of George Kittle and Jauan Jennings in the middle of the field as Kyle Shanahan will identify a weakness at linebacker and look to expose it. If McCaffrey can’t get going early, Purdy should be able to keep drives going through the air.
The 49ers Win, IF…
The 49ers gameplan should be simple: Ball control on offense with a heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey and Brian Robinson Jr. while stopping the run on defense to make the Panthers one dimensional in their offensive attack. Slowing down Dowdle and Hubbard and forcing Bryce Young into long passing downs should favor a 49er defense that will attempt to limit explosive plays and keep the Panthers offense in front of them.
The Panthers Win, IF…
If the Panthers establish their run game early, it can open the field up for Young, coupled with an ineffective 49ers pass rush could make for a long day for Robert Saleh and company. Dowdle and Hubbard will be the key to keeping the ball out of Brock Purdy’s hands and controlling time of possession.
Final Thoughts, Spread, and Prediction
Monday Night’s game is critical to both teams as both are in the hunt for a playoff spot, as well as a potential division title. The 49ers come in as seven-point favorites, and will look to improve on their offensive production from last week’s win at Arizona. 49ers special teams will be an area to watch as the return game has been explosive as of late, but with newly signed Matt Gay handling kicking duties as Eddy Piniero heals his hamstring, things could get interesting as Gay is only 68% on field goals this season with Washington with all but one of his misses have been from 50+ yards. The 49ers will give the home Faithful an early Thanksgiving treat as Purdy and the offense will roll.
Prediction: 49ers 34, Panthers 20