Apologies for the lack of a published piece last week. Due to a move I was completely swamped. I did manage to get my picks to fellow 49ersHub writer, @NinersWithNate, who published them on his TikTok ahead of the game:
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We recovered from an 0-5 Dolphins showing, the worst of my handicapping career, with a strong 5-0, thanks to DraftKings injury protection paying out the Mike Evans pick. It was tracking nicely pre-injury. With our first undefeated week under our belts, we’ll look to keep the momentum rolling in what looks to be a weird one Sunday afternoon, when a Jed York-less San Francisco 49ers host the Denver Broncos at Levi’s Stadium.
(All bets via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Season Record: 9-6 Units: +1.91 Overall: 45-24-1
R.J. Harvey O 3.5 Receptions (-111)
Alright, those that have followed these picks for the better part of two seasons now know I love my backup RB overs. It feels like a constantly soft market in an ever-sharpening betting world. Harvey has only played two games this season, but produced 4 and 6 catches on 11 total targets in them. His 7 targets last week occurred amidst an 18-touch game for Dobbins, to boot. He’s currently caught twice as many balls as he’s had rush attempts in 2026. Denver has a clear role in mind for the second-year back, and it’s one he has excelled in. Buoyed by the 10-reception game ceded to Arizona, S.F. has given up an average of 5.67 receptions per game to the running back position. Assuming the white-hot 49ers’ offense can keep it rolling, Harvey should see plenty of pass-friendly snaps this week.
R.J. Harvey O 22.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
As I said, I love my backup RB overs. We’re double dipping here. I try to give you guys some variety on these, but after a disastrous 0-5 Week 2, we have to keep momentum rolling and build those units back up. In comes the correlated over here with Harvey’s receiving total, a modest 22.5. In his two appearances thus far, he posted totals of 23 and 41 receiving yards, respectively. Totals that included chunk plays of 11 and 19 yards in his first 10 catches. 22.5 is an attainable threshold for what’s been an efficient pass catcher, currently producing 6.4 yards per reception, and playing a defense that’s allowed an average of 31.7 receiving yards per game to running backs through three. If he sees 4-5 targets, this feels very comfortable to me. I don’t hate it if you want to parlay both; the good people over at DraftKings will pay you out at least +258 on it if you do.
J.K. Dobbins U 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Dobbins has looked terrible to this point, no two ways about it. He’s totaled 36, 36, and 49 through three games, while his efficiency has cratered with more work. His yards per carry have declined from 4.5 to 3.6, and he finished last week at 2.9. The concern here is Sean Payton’s declaration that it’s time to get Dobbins rolling, evident in his weekly increased workload. He now brings that initiative to face a depleted 49ers front that is currently allowing 98.3 rushing yards per game. He eclipsed this total (59.5) in 9 of his 10 appearances in 2025 and now gets a defense allowing 98.3 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.
So why play the under? Simply because I think Dobbins is done. I think the days of him being one of the high-YPC runners in the league are behind him. I think he can leave any given game early or periodically with injury. I also think this game script could get away from Denver if they give up points early and are forced to play a pass-happy second half. I project Dobbins to need 18+ touches to get there, for the game to stay close, and for Harvey to remain uninvolved as a rusher. That’s a whole lotta if’s and maybe’s. We’re playing it.
Christian McCaffrey O 41.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
With the severely depleted receiving corps, I’m of the belief that we’re back to WR1 CMC season this week. In his 22 games since 2025 kicked off, Christian has cleared this mark 13 times, or 59.1%. Denver just allowed Kyren Williams to get loose for 6 receptions and 70 yards. Kenneth Walker and Elijah Johnson combined for 5/62 in Week 1. With DC Vance Joseph’s penchant for the blitz, it only takes one or two well-timed screens for us to get there. That’s why I opted for yardage over catch volume. While not part of my five picks, I also love the parlay here. Over 4.5 receptions parlayed with the over 41.5 yards pays out a minimum of +226 before the same game parlay modifier. Happy RB receiving hunting, this is a great week to do so, however you prefer to go about it.
George Kittle O 64.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Kittle has been ramping up nicely ahead of Week 4, increasing his weekly receiving yardage from 12 to 80 to 82. The last two weeks have come on the back of 10 total receptions; that’s why we’re playing the yardage, not the volume. The aforementioned receiving corps is once again down bad, a point which cannot be overstated as it pertains to George’s outlook. From weeks 10 through 16 of 2025, he eclipsed this figure six consecutive weeks. If we regard his sub-50% snap share in week 1 as a ramp-up, he’s cleared 64.5 yards in eight straight full snap games. Even if a hobbled Mike Evans manages to take the field, Kittle should operate as the clear lead receiver for Purdy. We’re going to tail their multi-season mind meld in Week 4.
There ya go folks, another week, another five shots at glory. Remember, it’s not winning money we’re addicted to; it’s hope. Gambling is simply a game of chasing hope, and it’s absolutely beautiful. Good luck tomorrow!