Week 4 Preview: 49ers vs Jaguars
49ers vs Jaguars Week 4 preview: Two of the top defenses collide.
The San Francisco 49ers will face another league-leading defense in Week 4 when the Jacksonville Jaguars come to town. This matchup features two offenses who have yet to hit their stride, and two defenses that are putting the league on notice with their abilities. This will be no easy feat for either team, and will require both teams to play until the final whistle. Let’s take a look at the matchup ahead and see who may have the upper-hand.
The Build Up
The 49ers are coming off of yet another hard fought win, defeating the Arizona Cardinals 16-15. While the Mac Jones led offense failed to put a ton of points on the board, they did rack up 329 total yards of offense. Finishing drives has been the achilles heel of this 49ers offense, who has been to the red zone 11 times, only scoring a touchdown on five of those trips (45.5%). They have, however, shown that they are able to close out games, whether it be crucial turnovers or the two-minute drill, the 49ers have found ways to win time and time again.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have also struggled on the offensive side of the ball. WR Brian Thomas Jr. has had his fair share of “sophomore slump” moments, between miscues with QB Trevor Lawrence, several dropped passes, and failing to make major plays in crucial situations, the offensive side of the ball for the Jaguars has been a tough outing. The silver lining in their 2-1 start? The defense. Leading the league in takeaways and ranking in the top-10 in points allowed, the Jaguars defense has been holding it down while its offense finds its identity.
Injuries
The talk of the town continues to be the blows this 49ers team has taken. News broke Monday after the teams win against Arizona that star DE Nick Bosa suffered a season-ending ACL tear, adding to the list of players the 49ers look to continue without. They had 15 players on their injury report heading into Sunday’s matchup with the Jaguars. Some of those were veteran rest days, but most of them are lingering injuries that the team just can’t seem to shake. QB Brock Purdy will return to the lineup after missing the last two games due to a shoulder and turf toe-like injury. A situation to monitor is CB Renardo Green, who was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday, but did not practice on Friday. If Green is not able to suit up on Sunday, third-year CB Darrell Luter Jr. would start in his place.
The Jaguars, on the other hand, seem to be in a pretty good spot injury wise, with the only player downgraded to OUT being OL Wyatt Milum. WR Dyami Brown, one of the team’s leading receivers, left the game against the Texans in Week 3 early. He is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury.
Matchups to Watch
Brock Purdy vs. Jaguars Secondary
As stated before, the Jaguars defense leads the league in takeaways heading into Week 4. The last game Brock Purdy played was Week 1 in Seattle, where he threw two interceptions in the win. The Jaguars have a league-high seven interceptions this season, and will be waiting in the wings for Purdy to air it out.
49ers Defensive Line vs. Jaguars Offensive Line
After the loss of Nick Bosa, the 49ers defensive front looks less fierce than in previous weeks. On the opposite side of the ball, the Jaguars offensive line has been playing some great football. As one of the league’s best, the Jaguars have allowed 3 sacks in 183 total offensive plays. Keep an eye on the 49ers plan of attack without their best defensive lineman on the field.
Travis Hunter vs. Everyone
As he still finds his footing in the NFL, Travis Hunter will be seen on both sides of the ball. Although he has been seen taking more defensive snaps than offensive snaps, expect him to be featured in the Jaguars offensive plans on Sunday.
49ers win, IF…
If the 49ers have any chance at improving to 4-0, it starts with the run game. Christian McCaffrey is only averaging 58.6 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry, way below what everyone expected at the start of the year. On top of that, newly acquired RB Brian Robinson Jr. has only seen 17 carries so far this season. The 49ers need to include a one-two punch with both McCaffrey and Robinson to solidify a run game.
If the run game is not there, they turn to the air where the 49ers rank 1st in passing yards per game at 280.0. The 49ers will need to be cautious of the turnover-hungry Jaguars secondary, and take advantage of the 6-7 man boxes that they will see periodically to get the run game moving.
On the defensive side of the ball, the 49ers need to get to the quarterback. QB Trevor Lawrence has thrown four interceptions so far this season, and the 49ers need to get to the backfield and make him uncomfortable for that number to go up. With the absence of Nick Bosa, expect to see linebacker and corner blitzes to throw this Jaguars offensive line off their game.
Jaguars Win, IF…
If the Jaguars plan to improve to 3-1 this weekend, it starts with their offense. QB Trevor Lawrence has a 55.8% completion percentage and an overall QB rating of 70.3. That’s less than ideal for a $55M quarterback in the NFL. However, this offense has yet to find its identity. They will look to rely heavily on RB Travis Etienne Jr., who is averaging 90 rushing yards per game and 5.9 yards per carry this season.
They will also rely heavily on their defense keeping the 49ers honest. Limit Christian McCaffrey in both the run game and the pass game, make Brock Purdy play off schedule, and take away the crossing routes from Ricky Pearsall. Seems like an easy plan, but the 49ers have won three gritty games in a row with a less-than average starting core, so finding ways to win is what they have been good at this year.
The Jaguars need to punish the depleted defensive line, target the young guys in the secondary, and let Trevor Lawrence get comfortable in the pocket.
This game will feature a heavy defensive battle, as it features two of the top-10 teams in points allowed. Don’t expect this game to be a high scoring one, as it will probably shake out much like the rest of the 49ers’ games this season. Low scoring, high intensity, and needing to find new ways to win.
Score Prediction: 49ers 20, Jaguars 10.